From Sliders to Sentences: Inflation’s Role in POCA Cases

Why inflation statistics—and what's in your gym bag—can change the outcome of a confiscation case.

Inflation: More Than Just Economic Chatter

In recent weeks, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) updated the contents of its Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) basket—a move that might seem trivial, but carries real-world consequences for criminal defendants. The 2025 update saw the addition of men’s sliders, exercise mats, and virtual reality (VR) headsets, while items like CD-Rs, canned strawberries, and newspaper classified adverts were removed.

To the casual observer, this might be nothing more than an Instagrammable snippet of economics. But to those working within the criminal justice system—particularly under the Proceeds of Crime Act 2002 (POCA)—it’s a reminder of how shifting consumer habits quietly influence the way we measure, calculate, and enforce justice.

What Is CPIH and Why Does It Matter?

The CPIH tracks the prices of over 700 goods and services to measure inflation, reflecting how far your money goes now compared to a year ago. The basket is updated annually to mirror modern spending habits. This year's additions, including VR headsets, reflect a growing consumer interest in emerging tech, while removals like newspaper adverts signal the decline of traditional media.

While economists use CPIH to track inflation, it also plays a crucial role in the courts. In POCA cases, CPIH is commonly used to adjust historic benefit figures—ensuring that values reflect today's money, not the economic climate of years past.

CPIH in POCA Cases: A Quiet Multiplier

When a defendant is found to have benefited from criminal conduct, the prosecution will often apply CPIH to convert past values into present-day equivalents. The logic is simple: £1 obtained in 2020 does not hold the same value as £1 in 2025.

The impact can still be significant. For example, a benefit figure of £100,000 from January 2020 would be uplifted to around £124,700 in January 2025 using CPIH—an increase of nearly 25%, purely due to inflation. This isn’t interest, profit, or any punitive adjustment—just the effect of time on money. Yet that inflation-based uplift directly affects the amount a defendant is ordered to repay. And if they can’t pay, it may also influence the length of any default sentence they face.

Why Sliders (and Other Items) Belong in Court

So where do sliders come in? Each item in the CPIH basket is chosen because it represents real-world consumer spending. Men’s sliders, yoga mats, and VR headsets were added this year not as novelties, but as indicators of how people live and spend. Their inclusion ensures that CPIH remains an accurate reflection of modern life—and therefore a fair basis for financial recalculations.

What may seem like light news is a reminder that evolving lifestyles shape inflation, and inflation, in turn, shapes criminal justice outcomes.

A Forensic Accountant’s Take

From a forensic accounting point of view, CPIH uplift is an area that warrants careful scrutiny. While CPIH is the standard index, it is not mandatory. In some cases, alternatives like the Retail Prices Index (RPI), wage inflation, or even sector-specific trends might arguably provide a more accurate reflection of value change—especially in specialist industries.

Moreover, benefit figures under POCA are rarely simple. Conduct may span years, involve varied transactions, or occur in one-off lump sums. A forensic accountant can break down those figures, apply tailored uplifts for each period or transaction, and challenge blanket applications of CPIH. In the right case, that can make a material difference.

Final Thoughts: The Hidden Impact of Everyday Economics

Inflation isn’t just about the rising cost of groceries or footwear trends. It’s embedded in the mechanics of justice—used to justify higher benefit figures, steeper confiscation orders, and, potentially, longer prison sentences.

So, the next time you hear that sliders or VR headsets have entered the inflation basket, think beyond the headlines. These changes are more than economic trivia—they are the moving parts behind serious legal and financial consequences.

Footnote:
CPIH uplift calculated using ONS data (2015 = 100)
January 2020 index = 108.3
January 2025 index = 135.1
Uplift: £100,000 × (135.1 ÷ 108.3) ≈ £124,700
Source: Office for National Statistics – CPIH Index Time Series.